Recently, I viewed videotape entitled Discovering the Future�The Business of
Paradigms, featuring Futurist-Lecturer-Author Joel Barker. The lessons
Barker provides are fundamental, important and could be of value to any of
us, both in our working and personal lives.
Barker begins by posing a question: What prevents us from
seeing, accepting and understanding new ideas?
He then quotes a dictionary definition of paradigm as a
pattern or model, but goes on to add his own interpretation of paradigm as a
set of rules or regulations that establish specific boundaries. Part of any
paradigm package is the knowledge or information needed to successfully solve
problems that fit within that paradigm or model. Additionally, and this is
what he calls the paradigm effect, paradigms act as filters. Only
information, knowledge and experience that fits the paradigm gets through the
filter, or is distorted in order to fit.
Barker suggests that what is impossible or difficult to do
in one paradigm may be easy to do in another. As an example, he contrasts
American runners and the 26-mile marathon to the members of an Indian tribe
in Northern Mexico who literally run everywhere they go and regularly
participate in a 70-mile race.
Barker has what he calls the going back to zero rule: When
a paradigm shifts, everyone goes back to zero. Past success guarantees
nothing. He illustrates this with the Swiss watch industry, which in 1968
securely controlled 65 percent of the world market garnering from that about
80 percent of the total profits. Then years later that secure share had
dropped to 10 percent and over the next three years the industry released
50,000 of its former 65,000-member workforce. The Swiss watch technological
paradigm was one of bearings, gears and mainsprings. But, the Swiss were put
back to zero when the watch paradigm shifted to the quartz movement which,
ironically, was invented by one of their own but unacceptable to industry
captains because they were stuck in the old paradigm. Nevertheless, the
quartz movement technology was exhibited at an annual watch congress where it
was picked up by Texas Instruments and the Japanese. Today, the Japanese
dominate the world watch market. Paradigms influence perception, Barker
explains. You see best what you are supposed to see. We must, he says develop
openness to new ideas. We must be able to recognize the present paradigms and
then be ready to go beyond them.
Barker postulates six givens:
1. Paradigms are
common to and in all aspects of life.
2. Paradigms are
useful in showing us relative importance, defining problems, giving us rules
and focusing attention.
3. However,
sometimes your paradigm becomes the only paradigm. This leads to a disorder
called paradigm paralysis, a terminal disease of certainty, which can destroy
institutions.
4. People who
create (new) paradigms are usually outsiders who are not vested in the old
paradigms. New rules are written on the �edge.�
5. Paradigm
practitioners who choose to change early�paradigm pioneers�have to be
courageous and must have faith in their judgment that the new paradigm will
succeed.
6. You can choose
to change the rules, see the world anew, and change from one paradigm to
another.
He closes with
his paradigm shift question: What is it today that
is impossible to do, but could be done if you fundamentally changed what you
do?
He believes
all of us continuously need to be asking ourselves that question.